emini futures 12th September 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
w/e 24th Aug SPY broke above the January high and has so far held that level. Significant Selling has not been marked for 30 days.
Negatives: See last Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Price did probe above 2900 and that level has been rejected with price printing lower from there. There were six consecutive lower Value Areas following the high day (highly unusual) indicating weakness but ES has rallied a little this week. The Pulse Chart now shows neutral breadth and there has been an ongoing negative divergence between price itself and the indicator which has just confirmed by the indicator turning down. Bulls would want to see this turning back up. One other indicator to note is the Rydex ratio, see below.
Positives: From the high day Significant Sellers have not been marked and the minor poc at 2858.50 has not yet been tested so although the market has come lower there is no clear sign of weakness until we see the Sellers (red) being marked and ES printing time below 2858.50.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 52%), Nasdaq 49% (from 51%), R2000 52% (from 54%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 27.55 last Thursday which equals the highest ratio in the database. On Tuesday the ratio fell quite sharply to 23.91, from 26.75, as the market rallied back a little.
Bonds: TLT – A sharp decline for TLT early last week and a further decline this week leaves the chart below 121.00, the major poc, in a weakened price location. There is Support at 118.50 (6mn poc) and this looks likely to be tested.
Dollar Index: The major poc is at 94.80. Late August the chart tested that Support but has held so far.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support it is in a LT strong price location.
GBPUSD: The major poc is at 1.3200 and there was a rejected probe into that level in late July. Chart remains in a weak LT price location below that level.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a strong rally back from there but it did not see EURUSD above 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. If the chart is printing below that level it remains in a weak LT position.
USDJPY: the major poc is now at 111.30 and chart is currently printing very close to that level.
