emini futures 6th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read last week’s highlighted comments. The market rallied last week following a test of the 12mn VAL (2605). Value Areas on Wed/Thu/Fri were generated in the area of 2718, the maj poc and Monday’s just above that level. Pre-open today ES is printing above 2718. Bulls would want to see ES hold 2718 now. Price spending time back below that level would be a weakened position. Significant Buying (green) marked above 2718 and improvement in the Breadth numbers, see below, would be further positives. Checking recent intraday data (5min), I can see that before the open on Friday enough time was spent at 2761.50 to migrate the 2mn poc to that level. the 2mn poc migrated to 2761.50. This is now First Level Resistance.
ETFs: Major Levels. SPY = 271.7, IWM = 153.5.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 27% (from 23%), Nasdaq 26% (unch), R2000 24% (from 23%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply lower at 8.15, the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. On Friday, broke lower and printed its lowest level since Jul 2014.
Dollar Index: Midweek, last week, DXY probed above the August high (its highest level since June 2017). This was rejected and DXY fell sharply. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position but has rallied recently. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that.
Oil: USO – As long as chart holds above 12.79, the 12mn Support, it is in a LT strong price location. We need to watch for that poc migrating higher. USO has retraced from the 10/03 high and on Friday printed its lowest level since June.
GBPUSD: has rallied strongly over the last five days but is still in a weak LT location. There is minor Support at 1.2978, the minor 1/2R off the August low, and major Resistance at 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: On 08/15 the chart printed its lowest level since July 2017. There was a rally back from there to probe 1.1755, the 1year poc Resistance. This was rejected and the chart declined from there to approach the August low. Chart remains in a weak price location.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
