emini futures 20th November 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Monday’s session generated a Value Area entirely below 2718, the major poc, which immediately put it back in a weak position. As I wrote last week, “prudent Bulls would wait for Significant Buying (green) marked above this level”. Pre-open today ES is also printing below 2710.50, the minor 1/2R off the October low, which increases the chances of a retest of that low. Note the 12mn VAL is now at 2634 (dashed line). Breadth needs to improve as well, see below.
ETFs Maj POC Resistance: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 33% (from 36%), Nasdaq 25% (from 29%), R2000 28% (from 31%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 12.30. Market has fallen over the last few days and the ratio has moved higher and as I’ve been saying recently, that’s concerning. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – declined sharply since breaking below 121.00, the major poc, at the start of September. 11/02 broke lower and subsequently printed its lowest level since Jul 2014. Has bounced from there.
Dollar Index: Last week DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month – it remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that. There is minor Resistance at 116.0, the 11mn poc.
Oil: USO – Broke below 12.79, the 12mn poc, last week. Declined further from there. There is Major Poc Support at 11.41.
GBPUSD: remains in a weak LT location below 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: Last week printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Chart remains in a weak LT price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2016 low (this was probed yesterday).
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
