emini futures 6th December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Pre-open on Monday there was a rejected probe above 2808, the 12mn VAH and in Tuesday’s session there was a large sell-off which saw ES back below 2718, the major poc. Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked but in the longer time-frame that Selling can be called Reactive as the VA was not printed entirely below the poc. From the close of session on Tuesday and into the overnight of Wednesday, ES rallied slightly and found Resistance at the 2718 poc. From there it has declined and pre-open today is printing around 2660. Bulls need to see ES recover and print time back above 2718. Time below the poc would indicate further weakness. Breadth numbers deteriorated sharply on Tuesday, see below.
ETFs Maj POC levels: SPY 271.7, IWM 153.5
Stocks>50dyma numbers as of Tuesday close: Nyse 33% (from 52%), Nasdaq 28% (from 44%), R2000 27% (from 45%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: On Tuesday My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 14.73. Down from Monday’s ratio at 15.93 which was a 30day high. On 11/05 the ratio fell to 8.15 which was the lowest ratio in more than a year. The peak reading is 27.55 recorded 09/07 which equalled the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 11/02 broke lower and subsequently printed its lowest level since Jul 2014. Has rallied from there and on Tuesday was sharply higher.
Time spent above 121.00, the major poc, would put TLT back in a LT strong position.
Dollar Index: 11/12 DXY printed its highest level since June 2017. The major poc is at 94.80 and chart printed a higher low at that Support earlier in the month – it remains in a strong LT price location above that level.
Gold: GLD – The major poc is at 121.00 and this Support was broken 06/19. Chart remains in a LT weak position. It is possible the poc could migrate lower with time – I am monitoring that. The minor Resistance at 116.0, the 11mn poc, has been exceeded this week and GLD closed above that level in a stronger position.
Oil: USO – Broke below 12.79, the 12mn poc, in early November and on 11/23 broke below 11.41, the Major Poc. Bulls would want to see that level recovered.
GBPUSD: remains in a weak LT location below 1.3200, the major poc.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Chart remains in a weak price location if it prints below 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.30. Chart is printing above that level and looks to have formed a higher low at that poc.
