emini futures 27th December 2018 – pre-open
During Monday’s shortened session ES printed a new low for this down trend but rallied strongly on Wednesday. As I have been writing recently, >>only the Sentiment data, which is at/reaching bearish extremes and the December seasonal pattern offer a ray of hope but with weak price location and a negative Pulse Chart I remain wary of the long side<<. At a minimum I would want to see Effective Buying (green) being marked before assuming higher on even the dayframe. Interesting that both TLT and GLD have probed their major Resistance levels over the last few days, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 9%, Nasdaq 9%, R2000 9%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly at 6.78 on Wednesday. Up from 6.41 on Monday, the lowest ratio since November 2016.
Bonds: TLT – last week TLT printed its highest level since August and probed above 121.00, the major poc. This is important Resistance. We have yet to see a daily bar printed entirley this level and on Wednesday TLT fell. However, time spent above the poc would put TLT in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: as long as DXY prints above 94.80, the major poc, it is in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – on Wednesday GLD printed its highest level since June and briefly probed the Resistance at 121.00, the major poc. This was rejected but “if” GLD can print time above this level it would be in a stronger position.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and is fell sharply lower from there printing its lowest level on Wednesday since July 2017. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: on 12/12 fell to its lowest level since April 2017. Has bounced from there but remains in a LT weak position.
EURUSD: 11/12 printed its lowest level since June 2017, breaking the August low. Bounced from there and has probed the Resistance at 1.1450, the 1/2R off 2017 low, but has not printed above it.
USDJPY: has fallen back below 111.30, the major poc and is currently in a weak LT position.
