posted today at 6.30am est
previous
>>I’m sure many traders are monitoring the support trendline off the November low that comes in around 818 today. Should we see a break below that level it could well bring in a new wave of selling and this time (unusually) the obvious “go with it” choice will most likely be the right one.<<
Once again the “unusual” didn’t happen – the break went as low as 805.50 and the buyers responded. Actually the buying was aggressive enough to register as “significant” by my criteria (green on the chart) as they attempted to auction price back to the controlling area around 840. This is the price that has attracted most time over the last three months. It is also the centre of the range from the November low.
I see two possibilities for today. Either there’s an immediate rejection of a probe up into the shaded area around 840 and sellers re-emerge quickly or ES spends time within this area which would then suggest further upside, possibly as high as 850-855.
Clues: If we see the probe/rejection first and then price back below 830 we’ll likely see minimum 817 which is middle of yesterday’s VA. If ES is going to accept the 840 area and move higher then 830 should limit the downside.
