posted 9.25 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 10th July
Monday generated a lower/overlapping, very narrow Value Area on less Volume and above First Level Support. SPY (Key Chart) has now found Support for three consecutive days just above its First Level Support 1334.50 (1/2R). Very interesting that Bonds (see TLT and IEF) and Dollar look strong which should imply a negative bias for equities and yet the Equity Indices are holding up very well. imo either Bonds and dollar will start to sell off very soon or stock indices/ETFs will break Support. Currently ES/SPY are holding a relatively strong price location above 1/2R Support.
KEY CHARTS: SPY First Level Support at 134.67 (1/2R). TLT is also a Key Chart – a break back below 127.23 1/2R could trigger Bonds lower and equities higher.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (poc) 137.30 (SPY)
First Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R) SPY = 134.67
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.37 (from 3.77). This is a 36day high and a minor concern for smart Bulls.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: On Friday chart broke below the June low (which was a two year low). This chart has been in a weak price location for weeks and this new low is a negative for equities. Minor strength would be indicated only if chart can print back above the minor poc at 1.2496.
– Dollar Index: currently threatening the June high.
– TLT: Key Chart. chart now prints back above the Minor 1/2R off June high at 127.23 That’s ST stronger price location if it holds.
mixed but imo charts imply a negative bias for equities but see comments above.
