posted 9.22 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 27th July
ES gapped higher to Open on Thursday and the day session gap is still there. A brief probe below the 5month poc at 1348 was rejected. This is First Level Support and price below that level would suggest weakness in the ST. Tuesday’s Aggressive Selling imbalance (red-at-bottom) was negated by Thursday’s price action. Significant Buying marked above 1334.50 would suggest higher in the ST.
re the 1/2R off 2012 high. Large Cap ETFs, DIA and SPY are printing above these levels to a stronger price location. IWM and QQQ are the relative laggards.
First Level Resistance = 1366 (poc) SPY = 137.30
First Level S/R = 1348 (5mn poc)
First Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R off March high) SPY=134.67 (1/2R)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.43, a 17dy low. That being on an up day for the market probably means their mood is no longer “buy the dip”. The AAII (public) poll reported Bulls higher at 28.1%. Last weeks Bulls% at 22.2% was the lowest since August 2010. Bears were higher again at 43.1% (up from 41.8%). The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher again this week at 74.39 (from 67.74) the highest number since w/e 02/24 indicating that money managers are very bullish. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: new two year low on Tuesday but may Close the week strongly which would possibly give us a weekly reversal bar?
? Dollar Index: new two year high on Tuesday but may Close the week weakly which would possibly give us a weekly reversal bar?
? TLT: new high on Wednesday but a weak close today would see momentum turn down.
difficult to imply a bias for equities but there’s minor indications of change in these charts. Have to see if that develops.
