posted 9.21 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 14th August
See previous highlighted comments on graphic. ES briefly tested the given Dayframe Support which was the 10dy poc at 1395. This was rejected and ES closed strongly. Pre-open today ES is probing above the LT VAH at 1404. The March high for ES September contract is 1413.50.
First Level Support = 1395 (minor 10dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher at 4.10 (from 3.19). The ratio reached 4.51 on July 31st which was the highest level since mid-May and is the reference level now. Ratio above that level would likley indicate over-optimism. Bear Fund Assets that I follow were down 13% on Monday.
VIX low on Monday was 13.67. Anything below 13.66 is a new multi year low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Key chart. A new two year low was printed late July. From that low point we have seen a rally and an exact 50% retracement of that rally which was Friday’s low at 1.2242. Holding above the 1/2R off a low is the first positive indication to look for and so far, so good. Hopefully the chart will hold that minor Support and rally this week. Would then look for chart to print time above the minor poc at 1.2496.
+ Dollar Index: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 82.83 last week. The chart currently prints below that price and this is weak price location if the chart cannot recover back above that level.
+ TLT: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 125.93 last week. The chart currently prints below that price and this is weak price location if it cannot recover back above that level.
imo these charts have a ST positive bias for equities.
