posted 9.21 a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 15th August
ES opened Tuesday’s session above the LT VAH at 1404 (dotted) but no progress has been made above that level. The March high for ES September contract is 1413.50.
Dayframe: The 25dy poc migrated to 1398.50 which could be dayframe Support or Resistance and a useful level to monitor intraday.
Key Chart IWM is printing just above its Support at 79.00.
First Level S/R = 1398.50 (25dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 4.10. The ratio reached 4.51 on July 31st which was the highest level since mid-May and is the reference level now. Ratio above that level would likley indicate over-optimism.
VIX low on Monday was 13.67. Anything below 13.66 is a new multi year low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Key chart. A new two year low was printed late July. From that low point we have seen a rally and an exact 50% retracement of that rally which was Friday’s low at 1.2242. Low so far today is 1.2269 and Bulls would want to see that 1/2R level hold if tested again.
+ Dollar Index: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 82.83 last week. The chart currently prints just below that price with today’s pre-open high being 82.78. Weak price location if the chart cannot recover back above that level.
+ TLT: As mentioned in Friday’s webcast, the 5mn poc migrated to 125.93 last week. The chart currently prints below that price which is weak price location.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
