posted 8.59 a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 22nd August
On Tuesday I marked Significant Selling for the first time this month. Sellers Responded around 1425 and later in the day more Aggressive Selling was marked. The Value Area was overlapping/higher so this was not Effective Selling. Even so, new long trades are eliminated for me until Significant Buyers are marked again. A further indication of weakness would occur if Effective Selling is marked below the First Level Support at 1398.50 (25dy poc). Note the Rydex data below.
Key Chart SPY Opened on Tuesday at a new four year high but price above that level was quickly rejected and the daily bar has a “reversal look” with chart closing weakly.
First Level Support = 1398.50 (25dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher to 5.13 which is the highest level since 3rd May.
VIX hit a five year low last Friday at 13.3
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Key chart. Last week the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285 and chart found Support there on Friday and Monday. Yesterday the chart printed a 33day high.
+ Dollar Index: Last week the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52 and chart prints below that level. Has printed a 35day low today.
? TLT: The chart currently prints below the 5month poc at 125.93 which is weak price location. Pre-open chart is printing a 6day high.
imo is these charts have a slight positive bias for equities.
