posted 9.10 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 24th August
Thursday’s session generated a lower Value Area on less Volume. Aggressive Selling was marked (red-at-bottom) on this timeframe (dayframe). On the longer timeframe all the Significant Selling marked this week can be classified as Responsive because it has taken place above the poc at 1398.50. In other words the Sellers have Responded to higher prices and auctioned ES back to the poc (our proxy for Value). However, if Significant Selling is marked below that poc it indicates further weakness. As I write, pre-open, ES is printing below 1398.50. This level could be intraday Support or Resistance.
First Level S/R = 1398.50 (25dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher to 5.13 on Tuesday which is the highest level since 3rd May. Thursday’s ratio was lower again at 4.51 (from 4.73).
VIX hit a five year low last Friday at 13.3
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Last week the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285 and chart found Support there on Friday and Monday. Chart printed a 36day high on Thursday.
+ Dollar Index: Last week the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52 and chart printed a 45day low on Thursday.
? TLT: Key Chart. Chart has auctioned back up to the 5month poc at 125.93. Pre-open high is 125.85. Does TLT find Resistance here which may mark a lower high on the chart or can it print time above 125.93 which would be a positive for this chart and most likely a negaative for equities?
imo these charts “should” have a slight positive bias for equities.
