posted 9.02 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 28th August
ES exceeded Monday’s green-at-top high during Tuesday’s session but there was little follow-through and weakness to the Close. Value Area was overlapping/higher, but narrower on less Volume. The most recent imbalance was the Aggressive Buying on Friday so I need more evidence of weakness before considering the short side. ES 1398.50 is the important Support.
If you are bullish then you have a lot of Rydex traders on your side which isn’t usually a positive (see below). Key Chart is TLT (see below).
First Level Support = 1398.50 (40dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher to 5.13 last Tuesday which is the highest level since 3rd May. Ratio on Monday was 4.63. VIX hit a five year low last Friday at 13.3.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: w/e 17th Aug the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285. I said in last week’s eBook that Bulls would want that level to hold as Support. Chart held that level on Monday and rallied. Momentum is up.
+ Dollar Index: Recently the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52. Chart prints below that level. Momentum is down.
? TLT: Key Chart. This week TLT has auctioned back up to the 5month poc at 125.93 but has not yet printed above this Resistance. Does TLT find Resistance here which may mark a lower high on the chart or can it print time above 125.93 which would be a positive for this chart and most likely a negative for equities?
imo these charts “should” have a slight positive bias for equities – watching TLT closely.
