posted 9.27 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 6th September
Wednesday generated yet another daily Value Area within the price area bounded by the dotted VAH and VAL of the longer timeframe. We should look for a breakout of this range to occur soon. Note that the 25dy poc at 1398.50 held as Support across this range. That is a postive. Pre-open ES has probed above the VAH (1412.50) but as I write has not held that level (see yesterday’s highlighted comments). The poc at 1408.50 could be intraday Support or Resistance today. Also useful to watch where DIA prints relative to the 2month poc at 131.42. Pre-open it approaches this Resistance.
First Level S/R = 1408.50 (poc)
First Level Support = 1398.50 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again on Wednesday to 5.04 (from 4.88). This is just shy of the Recent high of 5.13 on 08/21 which was the highest level since 3rd May. Earlier in the year the ratio got above 5 and each time it did this it signalled limited upside. The Rydex traders are getting very bullish.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: w/e 17th Aug the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285. Chart held that level and rallied. Chart printed a two month high today.
+ Dollar Index: Recently the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52. Chart prints below that level.
– TLT: Key Chart. the 5month poc migrated to 125.93 in August. Pre-open today the chart prints just below that level. Price below 125.93 is weaker price location.
imo these charts currently imply a positive bias for equities but watching TLT closely relative to 125.93.
