posted 8.31 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 21st September
My rules did not allow me to mark Significant Buying although ES closed strong and one hour pre-open prints towards the top of this week’s range. Thursday generated the fourth Value Area within a very tight Hi-Lo range for this week so far which suggests range extension higher or lower today. I’m prevented from adding new longs (see previous comments) but not confident enough to short.
First Level Support = 1435.00 (18dy poc)
Other Key chart levels this week: Maj 1/2R off 2007 high:
QQQ = 70.13. pre-open chart prints just above this level.
Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Closed above this level on Thu.
Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60. Closed above this level on Thu.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 4.85 (from 5.19) but Wednesday’s ratio was 5.51 and I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside in the ST. AAII (public) poll reported Bulls only slightly higher at 37.5% (from 36.5%) with Bears also slightly higher at 33.8% (from 33.0%). After the market rally late last week I thought we might see this week’s poll showing a lot more bullishness but that hasn’t happened. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 3.7 has been higher recently; it reached 16.1 w/e 08/24 which was the highest since mid March.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc has migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location. Momentum has turned down.
? Dollar Index: The major level is still 80.15 but the 24mn poc has migrated to 79.19. This gives us an excellent reference level. Currently chart prints above 79.19 but price printing below is weak location.
? TLT: TLT is oversold and printing above Major poc Support at 117.15. Until that level is broken I cannot assume further weakness.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
