posted 9.11 a.m. et
pre-open comment Wednesday 26th September
You can see on the chart that Significant Buyers and Sellers have both been active recently. There is a struggle for control of the dayframe and if Significant Selling is marked below the 20dy poc at 1435 this will likely indicate the next directional move in the ST will be lower (see yesterday’s comments). On Tuesday I marked Significant Selling but again this was ineffective (overlapping Value Area). The ES low of the session was the 1335 poc. Bulls would want to see: this level hold or see Buyers Responding to a probe below and the levels on the Key charts hold (see below).
First Level S/R = 1435.00 (20dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Closed below this level on Tue. Good chart to watch.
Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Closed below this level on Tue.
Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60. Closed below this level on Tue.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.66 but last Tuesday’s ratio was 5.51 and and I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location. Momentum has turned down.
? Dollar Index: The major level is still 80.15 but the 24mn poc has migrated to 79.19. This gives us an excellent reference level. Currently chart prints above 79.19 but should price print below that level it would be in a weak location.
? TLT: TLT is oversold and printing above Major poc Support at 117.15. Until that level is broken I cannot assume further weakness.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
