posted 9.12 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 5th October
Thursday’s session generated a higher, narrower Value Area but entirely above 1446 (1/2R off September high). That’s encouraging. Further strength would be implied if ES can print some time above that level – maybe enough to pull the minor poc (currently at 1435) higher. Nearly all major charts that I follow are printing back above the 1/2R level off the September high, inc SPY, DIA, QQQ, EURUSD, UK_FTSE100, EEM, EPP. Further strength for equities would be anticipated if the charts can print time above these levels. The Russell 2000 smallcap ETF (IWM) is a laggard here, pre-open it prints below its 1/2R which is at 84.90. Would be good to see the small caps picking up relatively.
First Level Support = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
Second Level Support = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Thu Close 69.34). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Thu Close 3149.46). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Thu Close 2828.60).
Sentiment: AAII (public poll) Bulls% was lower at 33.9 (from 36.1) and Bears% also lower at 33.2 (from 36.5). My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 3.70 which is a 38day low and down quite a way from the recent extreme high (5.51) on 09/18 which coincided with the recent price peak. Market has rallied for four days and the ratio has fallen for four days and that is not usually bearish in the ST.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to exactly 80.15 (the major level) and has so far found Resistance there. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
+ TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Pre-open chart prints below the 1/2R off September low – weak position if it stays that way.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
