posted 9.17 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 9th October
Overnight ES has printed down to 1445.50 and probed First Level Support – currently, pre-open, ES prints above 1450. Monday’s session generated a lower, narrower Value Area on low Volume. I have not marked Significant Buying for seven days and yet ES is printing higher. This looks like Buyers Resting and until time is printed below the 35dy poc at 1435, or Effective Selling is marked, I will assume Buyers remain in control. If more time is printed around 1452/1454 the poc could migrate higher which would most likely be bullish. VAH of current range is 1454 (dashed). Smallcaps (IWM) and Tech (XLK) are lagging the large caps (DIA, SPY) at the moment which is a concern in the ST.
First Level Support = 1446.00 (min 1/2R off Sep high)
Second Level Support = 1435.00 (35dy poc)
Key chart levels this week: still monitoring the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13 (Mon Close 68.34). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Mon Close 3112.35). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Mon Close 2797.08).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.13 (from 4.22). Down quite a way from the extreme high (5.51) on 09/18 which coincided with the recent price peak.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Momentum is still down.
? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to exactly 80.15 (the major level) and has so far found Resistance there. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
+ TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring at the start of this week – chart in weak price location below that level.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
