posted 9.20 a.m. et
pre-open comment Tuesday 16th October
On Monday I marked Significant Buying. On the dayframe this was Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) and on the longer timeframe it is Responsive i.e. Buyers auctioned ES back from below the VAL at 1426 to the 1435 poc. Rejection of a price probe below that VAL is encouraging (see Friday’s comments). Short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Pre-open ES has probed up into the 1/2R off the September high at 1442.25. Time printed above this level would be a positive. Significant Buying marked above the 1435 poc would inicate higher.
Potential S/R today = 1442.25 (1/2R off Sep high)
First Level Support = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: I continue to monitor the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high) on following charts. Price location relative to these levels is currently weak.
QQQ = 70.13 (Mon Close 67.17). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Mon Close 3064.18). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Mon Close 2739.85).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.15. The recent high at 5.51 on 09/18 conicided with the price peak.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+? EURUSD: Has so far held the Major poc Support at 1.2777 since the high in September. 1/2R off that high is 1.2988 – chart has broken above that level today. Momentum turned back up on Friday. Resistance at 1.3117 (2yr poc).
+? Dollar Index: Since the September low the chart rallied to 80.15 (the major level) and found Resistance there. This level was Resistance again last week. Momentum turned back down on Friday. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak price location.
+? TLT: has been printing below the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance since early September. Price relative to the 1/2R off the September low at 121.64 is worth monitoring – pre-open chart is above that level. Momentum turned down on Monday.
Based on Momentum (price oscillator) these charts are supportive for equities. Based on price location it is difficult to imply a bias for equities from these charts.