posted 9.13 a.m. et
pre-open comment Thursday 18th October
Wednesday’s session generated another higher, albeit narrower, Value Area on lower Volume. Most time was spent in the mid-1450s and imo this is the price area that may attract further time (see highlighted prev comments).
Smallcaps (IWM) up 2.28% so far this week and that’s more than LargeCaps (SPY) up 2.08%. Tech (XLK) however is lagging again this week, up 1.34%.
First Level Support = 1442.25 (1/2R off Sep high)
Second Level Support = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: I continue to monitor the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high) on following charts. Price location relative to these levels is currently weak.
QQQ = 70.13 (Wed Close 68.08). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Wed Close 3104.12). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Wed Close 2775.62).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 3.90 (from 4.01). And again, the ratio falling on an up day which indicates the Rydex traders don’t trust this move higher, and that is usually ST bullish (contrarian). In a similar vein Investors Intelligence reported Bulls down this week at 42.6% (from 45.7). That’s the lowest Bulls% for eleven weeks. And Bears were up at 26.6% (from 25.5).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has reached the 2yrPoc Resistance at 1.3117. Momentum is up and if that Resistance is overcome then the September high at 1.3172 could also be challenged.
+ Dollar Index: Has this week broken below the 79.19 poc which is weak price location is chart remains below that level.
+ TLT: prints below 121.64, the 1/2R off the September low. Momentum turned down on Wednesday.
imo these charts imply a positive bias for equities especially if EURUSD can print some time above 1.3117.
