posted 9.21 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 19th October
Thursday’s session generated a slightly lower/overlapping Value Area centred around 1452 which was the level I mentioned on 9th Oct that could attract time (highlighted below). The poc has not migrated higher at this point but more time here and that could happen. imo that would most likely be bullish. Sentiment is interesting, see below.
First Level Support = 1442.25 (1/2R off Sep high)
Second Level Support = 1435.00 (5mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: I continue to monitor the Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high) on following charts. Price location relative to these levels is currently weak.
QQQ = 70.13 (Thu Close 67.29). Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50 (Thu Close 3072.87). Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60 (Thu Close 2744.17).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 3.67 (from 3.90). The ratio has fallen every day this week indicating the Rydex traders don’t trust this move higher but as a group they have a very poor record of accuracy. AAII (public poll) Bulls% was lower at 30.6% (from 33.9) which is a ten week low. Bears% was higher at 38.8% (from 33.2) which is an eleven week high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Has reached the 2yrPoc Resistance at 1.3117. Momentum is up and if that Resistance is overcome then the September high at 1.3172 could also be challenged.
? Dollar Index: Has recovered back above the 79.19 poc. Time spent below that level would indicate further weakness.
+ TLT: prints below 121.64, the 1/2R off the September low. Momentum turned down on Wednesday. Printed a 23day low on Thursday.
imo determining a bias for equities from these charts is currently difficult. EURUSD printing time above 1.3117 and Dollar Index printing time below 79.19 would be supportive for equities.
