posted 9.13 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 9th November
In yesterday’s pre-open 1397 was marked as potential Support or Resistance. Unfortunately it turned out to be Resistance, see chart. Thursday’s session generated a lower, wider Value Area entirely below the major poc at 1397 and Agressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked. Significant Buyers have been absent for sixteen days now. I also said pre-open yesterday that “there would need to be much technical improvement before I could consider the long side” – and following yesterday’s Effective Selling below the maj poc the analysis has deteriorated. Sellers are active and in control and even though most major charts are reaching technical oversold levels they are in a very weak price location.
Second Level Resistance = 1408.00 (6mn poc)
First Level Resistance = 1397.00 maj poc
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.49 (from 3.56). On 19th Oct the ratio printed 3.33, a 49day low at that point. The Ratio is lower this week but not to the degree that we could say it indicates any sign of panic yet from the Rydex traders. We see the same lack of panic in this week’s public poll from AAII. Bulls are up from 35.7% to 38.5% which is the largest Bulls% since w/e March 30th.
Key Charts: There is maj poc Support at IWM 79.00 and XLK 28.16 and the SPY 12mn poc is at 137.22 These may come into play today. Also see TLT below.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Currently the chart is printing below 1.2777, the maj poc Support at a 2month low. This is weak price location. Momentum is down.
– Dollar Index: Chart prints above 80.15, the proven Resistance, at a 2month high.
– TLT: KEY CHART the 9month poc migrated to 123.96. TLT currently prints above this level which is strong price location. Momentum is up.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
