posted 9.21 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 16th November
Wednesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested early in Thursday’s session which generated a lower, narrower Value Area.
%Stocks>50dayma for both Nyse and Nadsaq are now below 20% (see yesterday’s comments).
The following levels are now Resistance on our Key Charts. If charts recover back above these pocs it would be a first minor sign of strength. SPY 137.22 (12mn poc) – IWM 79.00 (maj poc) – XLK 28.16 (maj poc).
Sentiment: We have fear being registered. My version of the Rydex Ratio was lower at 2.9 which is the lowest ratio since 19th June (this is a contrarian indicator). AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% at 28.8% (from 38.5%). Bears% higher at 48.8% (from 39.9%) is the highest since August 2011. The nett (Bulls – Bears) is therefore -20 which is the lowest single reading since w/e 18th May. This is a large increase in public bearishness.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: The major poc level at 1.2777 is active Resistance again today. It would be an interesting move if EURUSD recovered back above that level but until it does this is weak price location.
– Dollar Index: Chart prints above 80.15, the most important level on this chart. Printed a two month high on Tuesday. This is strong price location but there is Resistance a little higher at 81.35 (1/2R off this year’s high).
– TLT: TLT currently prints above 123.96, the 9month poc, which is strong price location and above 125.13 which is 1/2R off this year’s high and First Level Support.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
