posted 9.00 a.m. est
pre-open comment Monday 19th November
Significant Buying was marked on Friday which is the first since 15th Oct. On the dayframe this was Aggressive Buying (green-at-top). On the longer timeframe it can be classified as Responsive, i.e. it was marked below the important poc at 1397. New short trades are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again but price location here is too weak for me to consier new longs – I would need to see Significant Buying marked above 1397 for that.
First Level Resistance = 1397.00 maj poc
Breadth is not supportive. The ChartProfit Market Timing Charts stayed negative for all three Major Market Charts. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 22; Nasdaq 19; UK 33. Numbers below 50% are not supportive.
Price location. Our Key Charts/Levels going into last week were the POCs at SPY 137.22 and IWM 79.00, Support levels which were both broken. We have the same levels to monitor at the start of this week and pre-open today SPY is printing back above 137.22 which is the first minor sign of strength if it can hold. Another Key Chart this week is EURUSD (see below).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 2.57, the lowest ratio since since 7th June. Rydex traders are turning much more pessimistic (this is a contrarian indicator).
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: Key Chart. The major poc level at 1.2777 is active Resistance again today. It would be an interesting move if EURUSD recovered back above that level but until it does this is weak price location.
? Dollar Index: on Friday tested the Resistance at 81.35 (1/2R off this year’s high). Chart is off from there but remains in strong price location above 80.15, the most important level on this chart.
– TLT: TLT currently prints above 123.96, the 9month poc, which is strong price location and above 125.13 which is 1/2R off this year’s high and First Level Support.
Currently an unclear ST bias for equities from these charts. Over the next few days it is likely that either Dollar Index or EURUSD will overcome Resistance and this would give a clearer picture.
