posted 9.25 a.m. est
pre-open comment Tuesday 20th November
LT analysis remains negative but we have a bounce. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again on Monday. This is encouraging (note that the stats I have regarding green-at-top highs being tested the following day are not reliable following a gap up day).
Second Level Resistance = 1308.00 poc
First Level Resistance = 1397.00 maj poc
ES prints below its major poc at 1397 which is weak price location but other charts are back in a stronger price location. Our Key Charts/Levels this week are the POCs at SPY 137.22 and IWM 79.00. I’ve said that the first minor sign of strength would be time printed back above these levels. Following yesterday’s strong up day both these charts are printing above their POCs. Holding these levels would be constructive. See also EURUSD our other Key Chart this week (below).
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was only slightly higher at 2.73, from 2.57 on Friday which was the lowest ratio since since 7th June. Note yesterday was “Rydex traders are turning much more pessimistic (this is a contrarian indicator)”.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? EURUSD: Key Chart. Chart is currently printing above 1.2777, the major poc Resistance. This is stronger price location if chart can hold above this level. Momentum is now up.
? Dollar Index: Has not yet cleared the Resistance at 81.35 (1/2R off this year’s high). Daily oscillators indicate chart is overbought and Momentum has turned down which suggests a test of the 80.15 Support is likely.
? TLT: 125.13 which is 1/2R Support off this year’s high is in play. Daily oscillators indicate chart is overbought and Momentum has turned down. Suggests a stall here if that Supports fails this week.
Unclear bias for equities but encouraging early signs so far this week. Could change quickly.
