posted 8.13 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 2nd January
Written at 8am est. On Monday Buyers Responded below the maj poc and later in the day Aggressive Buying was also marked. Like the Selling on Friday this was not “Effective” as the Value Area was once again overlapping but the Buying Imbalances mean that new Short positions are now eliminated for me at least until Significant Sellers are marked again. Until we see a VA printed entirely below the maj poc at 1406 we can say that the longer term trend has not broken down. We haven’t seen that yet and no part of a VA has been printed below 1397, the 1/2R (basis March). Please see previous comments bottom-left on graphic, both are still relevant.
Also %Stocks>50dyma numbers held above 50% across the recent volatility. Currently Nyse 69% and Nasdaq 63%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
First Level Support = 1413 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
A volatile, news driven market. Emphasis should be on price location which is stronger.
Price location: pre-open all four major equity ETFs have gapped sharply higher and are printing back above their 1/2R levels (off Sep high) which are:
SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45; QQQ 65.95
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.34.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ EURUSD: since mid-December has held above 1.3117, the 24mn poc, which is strong price location.
+ Dollar Index: pre-open the Dollar Index is printing below 79.80, the 2year poc which is weaker price location. Positive for equities if chart cannot recover back above that level.
? TLT: Closed on Monday below 122.62 (1/2R of September low) which is weak price location.
imo these charts have positive bias for equities.
