posted 9.11 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 10th January
Wednesday’s session generated a higher, narrow Value Area on reduced volume. Since the market gapped higher, Significant Sellers have had six days to Respond and so far they have not. ES is currently holding/accepting price at this higher level. If Sellers do not make an appearance soon Buyers will most likely re-enter and seek them higher.
Dayframe: The minor 6dy poc is1453.50 and price relative to this level could be used as an ST guide to strength/weakness.
%Stocks>50dyma: Nyse 85% and Nasdaq 78%. Numbers >50 are supportive (>80 usually considered overbought).
First Level Support = 1413 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged on Wednesday at 4.44. a 60day high. Bear fund assets that I follow have reached an extreme low point. Also the intraday low for the VIX at 13.22 was the lowest level for years which indicates extreme complacency and is a concern. Investors Intelligence Bulls% was higher at 51.1%, a 16week high. Bears% was lower at 23.4%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 27.7 is the highest since w/e 21st September.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: Up slightly off major poc Support at 117.15 and pre-open today is holding above that level. Price printing back below this poc would indicate further weakness and be a positive for equities.
? EURUSD: Pre-open has recovered back above 1.3117 (24mn poc). Time spent above that level is strong price location.
? Dollar Index: Last six days spent mostly above the important 80.15 level which is strong price location. Can that level now hold as Support? Price printing back below this poc would indicate further weakness and be a positive for equities.
? Commodities: Oil USO Closed above the important 1/2R and poc Resistance at 34.17 on Wednesday. Price printing time above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Also Gold GLD pre-open today is probing above its 161.0 maj poc Resistance.
These charts are printing very close to the important levels mentioned above and are mixed re the implied “bias” for equities. This will hopefully soon become clearer.
