posted 9.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 11th January
>> Significant Sellers have had six days to Respond and so far they have not. ES is currently holding/accepting price at this higher level. If Sellers do not make an appearance soon Buyers will most likely re-enter and seek them higher.<<
The Buyers re-entered on Thursday (green-at-top) after giving Sellers opportunity for six days which they did not take (Buyers Resting). Sellers may or may not Respond at current levels but until I mark them new short trades remain eliminated for me.
The poc measured from September’s high (approx 4months) migrated to 1453 this week. I will use this as First Level Support.
%Stocks>50dyma: Nyse 86% and Nasdaq 78%. Numbers >50 are supportive (>80 usually considered overbought).
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly to 4.33 from Wednesday’s 60day high at 4.44. A number of Sentiment measures are now indicating excessive bullishness, more in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: Up slightly off major poc Support at 117.15 and pre-open today is holding above that level. Price printing back below this poc would indicate further weakness and be a positive for equities.
+ EURUSD: following yesterday’s recovery back above 1.3117 (24mn poc) today chart has broken out to its highest level since April 2012. Next Resistance is the 1/2R off 2010 low at 1.3416.
? Dollar Index: Declined yesterday back below the important 80.15 level and is currently printing just below 79.80 (2yr poc). Chart printing time below this level is weak price location.
? Commodities: Oil USO is still struggling to print above the important 1/2R and poc Resistance at 34.17. Price printing time above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Also Gold GLD has recovered back above its 161.0 maj poc which is stronger price location.
These charts are printing very close to the important levels mentioned above and are mixed re the implied “bias” for equities. This will hopefully soon become clearer.
