posted 05.53 a.m. est
pre-open comment Wednesday 16th January
I marked Responsive Buyers on Tuesday. An overlapping, lower Value Area was generated so this was not Effective Buying. Significant Sellers have not been marked for eleven days and we have seen five consecutive Value Areas printed above the 4mn poc at 1453. The market is overbought but only Sellers marked below 1453 would be a first sign of weakness.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 87% and Nasdaq 77%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 4.46. Monday’s 4.63 was a 69day high. Only in 2012 did we see the ratio above 5, that was at the April and September price highs.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk; mixed at the moment but will hopefully give better indication soon.
– Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Printed a ten day high on Tuesday and momentum is up.
? Commodities: Oil USO Rallied to important 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17 ten days ago but has still not managed to overcome this level. Price printing above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Gold GLD is now printing above the 161 major poc.
? Dollar Index: as I write chart prints at the 2yrpoc at 79.80.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed above that level. It woukd be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
