posted 08.38 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 18th January
Thursday generated a higher, wider Value Area on increased Volume. Significant Sellers have not been marked for thirteen days and we have seen seven consecutive Value Areas printed above the 4mn poc at 1453. The market is overbought but only Sellers marked below 1453 would be a first sign of weakness in the Longer Timeframe.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 87% and Nasdaq 79%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.22. Monday’s 4.63 was a 69day high. VIX printed 13.16 intraday on Thursday, its lowest since 2007.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk.
? Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15) but a weak close today woukld cause momentum to turn down again.
+ Commodities: Oil USO is now printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price printing time above this level would indicate further strength. Gold GLD is now printing above the 161 major poc.
? Dollar Index: one hour pre-open is printing just above 79.80, the 2yrpoc.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed time above that level. It would be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
