posted 9.09
pre-open comment Tuesday 22nd January
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice, Significant Sellers have not been marked for fourteen days. We have seen eight consecutive Value Areas printed above the 4mn poc at 1453 which is an indication of strength and although the market is overbought only Sellers marked below 1453 would be a first sign of weakness in the Longer Timeframe.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System is positive for all Major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 91% and Nasdaq 81%. UK 87%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: indicates extreme complacency, not quite extreme optimism, e.g. VIX closed below 13 for the first time since 2007. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.63, down quite a bit from 4.63 reached earlier in the week which was a 69day high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk.
? Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Momentum is still negative (has been since 5th Dec) so we cannot assume the Support will hold. Pre-open prints above 119.00, the very minor 1/2R off recent low.
+ Commodities: Oil USO is now printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Gold GLD is now printing above the 161 major poc.
? Dollar Index: pre-open is printing above 79.80, the 2yrpoc but below 80.15, the major level.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed time above that level. It would be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
