posted 9.05 a.m. est
pre-open comment Thursday 17th January
Wednesday generated a higher, narrower Value Area on less Volume. Significant Sellers have not been marked for twelve days and we have seen six consecutive Value Areas printed above the 4mn poc at 1453. The market is overbought but only Sellers marked below 1453 would be a first sign of weakness in the Longer Timeframe. As of 30minutes pre-open ES has printed as high as 1476, a new high.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 86% and Nasdaq 77%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.06. Monday’s 4.63 was a 69day high. Investor’s Intelligence poll reported Bulls% higher at 53.2% (from 51.1%) a seventeen week high. Bears% at 23.4% is the lowest since w/e 18th May 2012. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 30.9 is the highest since 6th April 2012 which conincided with the price high. And VIX printed 13.20 intraday on Wednesday, its lowest since 2007.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk.
– Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Printed a ten day high on Tuesday and momentum is up. Pre-open today is printing a 4day low.
? Commodities: Oil USO, pre-open is printing just above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price printing time above this level would indicate further strength and “risk on”. Gold GLD is now printing above the 161 major poc.
+ Dollar Index: pre-open prints below 79.80, the 2yrpoc, which is weak price location.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed time above that level. It would be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
