pre-open comment Wednesday 23rd January
On 10th Jan I wrote “If Sellers do not make an appearance soon Buyers will most likely re-enter and seek them higher.” Since then ES has pushed higher but so far there has been no Response from the Significant Sellers. Yesterday’s Aggressive Buying auctioned ES up in the region of 1490 late in the day and we shall see early in the session today whether this is attractive enough to bring a Response from the Sellers who have been absent now for fifteen days. As I have been saying the market is overbought but until Significant Selling is marked both the LT and ST analysis remain positive.
First Level Support = 1453 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 91% and Nasdaq 81%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: indicates extreme complacency, not quite extreme optimism, e.g. VIX closed at 12.43 on Tuesday, the lowest since 2007. Rydex data was not available as I posted this. I will refresh when it is available.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
Unlike Equity Index/ETF charts, the following KEY Charts are printing very close to useful reference levels. Monitoring price relative to these levels should give us a good idea about the markets current appetite for risk.
? Bonds TLT: Seems to have found Support just above the major poc (117.15). Momentum is still negative but up. Pre-open prints above 119.00, the very minor 1/2R off recent low.
+ Commodities: Oil USO is now printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Gold GLD is now printing above the 161 major poc.
? Dollar Index: pre-open is printing at 79.80, the 2yrpoc but below 80.15, the major level.
? EURUSD: printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc but has reached the next Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and has not yet printed time above that level. It would be a positive for this chart and equities if it did so.
