posted 9.09 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 8th February
Thursday’s session generated an overlapping/lower, wider Value Area on increased Volume. I wrote pre-open yesterday that “as long as ES holds above 1495 it is a minor sign of strength”. First Level Support at 1495 was tested and held with ES rallying in the afternoon. This is now proven Support and only Effective Selling below that level would indicate further weakness.
First Level Support = 1495 (40 dy poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 83% and Nasdaq 74%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 4.53 (from 4.50). The ratio on 01/30 was 4.81 which was the highest since late September. The ratio above that level would start to look excessive.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last seven trading days printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location. Pre-open today it prints at that level.
? Commodities: Oil USO has been overbought technically but still printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart if it holds above 34.17. Gold GLD has spent nearly all of the last four weeks consolidating above the 161.0 major poc which is a sign of strength if that level holds. Silver SLV is a Key Chart. It rallied to 31.25, its major poc Resistance, twice in January but has not yet exceeded it.
? Dollar Index: rallied to a 20dy high and pre-open today is printing back at 80.15, the major level. Price printing time above that level would put the chart back in a strong price location. Momentum is up.
? EURUSD: printed a nine day low on Thursday and currently prints just below 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
TLT, GLD, EURUSD and Dollar Index all printing at or very close to their major levels. That’s not very helpful when trying to imply a bias for equities but if Effective Buying/Selling, above/below ES 1495 is marked hopefully we’ll see confirmation in the price location of these charts.
