S&P 500 emini pre-open Monday 2nd March
posted 08.32 a.m. est
Last week I marked no Significant Buying or Selling. Buyers have not been marked for six days but so far Sellers have not Reacted at these higher prices. This may be Buyers Resting, offering opportunity to the Sellers, and if they do not take it soon Buyers will look for them higher still. The 38day poc has migrated to 2107.00. Significant Selling marked below this level would be the first sign of minor weakness. Only Significant Selling marked below 2033.50 would be the first sign of weakness for the LT trend. All four major stock index ETFs have positive Price Momentum but this indicator has now turned down on for these charts.
First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (38day poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
Breadth: CP Market Timing System is positive for all major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 64%, R2000 59%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 13.73 which equals the highest ratio in the database along with the reading in early December. Historically, extreme high levels in the ratio have been a warning. Bear fund assets that I follow fell 18% on Friday and this brings them close to the extreme low level from January.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but fell sharply in February. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative but up. There is Resistance at 132.20, the 1/2R off Jan high.
Dollar Index: on 01/23 printed its highest level since 2003. In recent webcasts I have talked about the possibility of a turn here for the dollar but chart is today printing close to that high. See EURUSD, below.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) five weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of January’s strong gains. There is Resistance at 117.62, the 1/2R off Nov low. Chart has printed a ten day high pre-open today.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply. Rallied in early February but pre-open today is printing in a weak price location below 18.6, the 1/2R off Jan low.
EURUSD: has been declining since May last year and has reached major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Has held above that level all of this month but broke below it on Thursday.
