Pre-open comment Friday 6th March
The last three Value Areas have been generated below the poc at 2107.00 which is weak price location in the ST. If the poc does not migrate Bulls would want to see time being printed back above 2107 as soon as possible. Since the recent high Sellers (red) have not been marked , which is a positive, but Significant Selling marked below 2107.00 would be a first sign of ST weakness. Price Momentum remains positive but down for all four major stock index ETFs.
First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (40day poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (unch), Nasdaq 64% (from 62%), R2000 57% (from 56%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 13.20. Monday’s ratio at 14.06 is the highest in the database and the first ratio above 14. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but fell sharply in February. Chart is lower this week and on Thursday tested February’s low to print its lowest level for two months. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative but up.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since 2003. First Level Support is now the 12mn poc at 94.67.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) five weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of January’s strong gains. The 11mn poc migrated to 115.12 and pre-open today GLD prints below that level.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply but rallied in early February. Pre-open today is printing almost at 18.6, the 1/2R off Jan low.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke below it last Thursday and is now printing below January’s low.
