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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Last week no Significant Buying or Selling was marked but technicals improved. The 7month poc migrated to 2066.50 and is now First Level Support. Bulls would want to see ES holding above this level. ES ended the week strongly probing First Level Resistance on Friday, 2107.00. Breadth imporoved, see below, and Price Momentum improved, see below.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) is positive and up for IWM (smallcaps). SPY, DIA and QQQ are negative but up.
First Level Resistance = 2107.00 (50day poc)
First Level Support = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
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*********** BREADTH
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All Major Market Charts are now positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65%, Nasdaq 66%, R2000 69%, UK 76%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/20: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower for the 4th consecutive week at 27.2% which is the lowest Bulls% since April 2013. Bears% was higher at 31.5%. This is the first time since July last year that there are more Bears than Bulls
03/20: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 52.0%. Bears% was slightly higher at 14.3%. The Bulls to Bears ratio is currently at 3.6 which is very high but not as high as it has been for the last five weeks
03/20: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 62
03/20: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Was slightly higher at 67.77, following the previous week’s sharp fall, the largest one-week negative change since August last year.
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/20: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.73. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database
03/20: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $8.6 Billion in the week to 18th March which is the largest single week’s inflow in twelve weeks. The 4wk flow number is now at $19.49 Billion. A number this high used to be a problem but in the last two years the 4wk flow has peaked above $30 Billion six times