Pre-open comment Thursday 26th March
Wednesday generated another lower, wider Value Area and Aggressive Selling was marked again, see yesterday’s highlighted comments The Support at 2066.50 did not hold and overnight ES has tested the next level of Support at 2033.50. If ES prints below 2066.50 it is in a weak price location. I will not consider new long positions until Significant Buying (green) is marked again.
First Level Resistance = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (previous poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53% (from 64%), Nasdaq 56% (from 66%), R2000 59% (from 71%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.51 (from 12.26). On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. Usually when SPY declines by 3.5% or more (as it has done since the February high) the ratio will fall by at least 30%. This time has not done but the decline this week may introduce some fear.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Has now retraced back above 130.75, which is the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart is printing above this level and this is strong price location if it holds.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level this year but has rallied from there and pre-open today is probing above the Resistance at 115.12, the 12mn poc.
Oil USO: printed a new low last week.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
