Pre-open comment Monday 30th March
Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and no Significant Buying. Importantly, the Support at 2033.50 has not yet been broken, see chart. Time below that level would be weaker price location. Overnight ES has rallied to probe above 2066.50, First Level Resistance, but one hour pre-open is printing just below that level. ES printing time above 2066.50 would be stronger price location.
First Level Resistance = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 2033.50 (previous poc); SPY 205.00 (6mn poc)
Breadth Mkt Charts: Nyse turned negative; Nasdaq, R2000 & UK all remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51%, Nasdaq 55%, R2000 59%, UK 58%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.96. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database. SPY has corrected from that point but the ratio has indicated little fear so far. From a contrarian perspective this is not very encouraging. More pessimism would be would be welcome
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: pre-open today is printing below 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. In the ST stronger price location is above that level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: Rallied last week to probe 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive but pre-open today is down from that test.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing below 18.39, the 12mn poc.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
