Pre-open comment Friday 1st May
ES rejected price above 2095.50 (4mn poc) immediately after the open on Thursday, see yesterday’s highlighted comments, and the Value Area was generate entirely below this level. Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Selling and 80% of the time these red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two). New longs are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Breadth numbers weakened quite sharply and are now below 50%, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2095.50 (4mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 55%), Nasdaq 38% (from 50%), R2000 36% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 11.92 which is an 24day high. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed on Thursday at a 37 day low. Currently printing below 129.80, the 6mn poc, in a weak price location.
Gold GLD: closed down on Thursday below 115.12, the 11mn poc in a weak price location.
Oil USO:closed on Thursday at its highest level this year. Has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: in February broke below the major 1/2R at 1.1241. There was a swift decline but chart has now rallied back to probe that level which is now Resistance.
