Pre-open comment Wednesday 5th May
Please read previous highlighted comments. Current activity from Significant Buyers and Sellers is causing volatile price action. Marking Aggressive Buying and Selling so close is rare. In the dayframe the Selling is more Effective; on 04/30 and 05/05 the Value Areas were lower and wider but the Aggressive Buying on 05/01 generated an overlapping/higher, narrower VA. This, along with the fact that technicals (price momentum and breadth) are weakening suggests that in the ST the Sellers have the edge. Also, ES is currently printing below 2095.50 (poc). This level “may” remain attractive and with time “may” become a more important level but price below that poc urges caution re the long side.
First Level S/R = 2095.50 (4mn poc)
Second Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc)
ETFs: SPY closed at 208.90, above its 6mn poc which is at 207.92. This is a good level to monitor today. IWM closed at 120.85, below 122.35, its 3mn poc, in a weak price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 53%), Nasdaq 39% (from 45%), R2000 34% (from 40%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was very slightly higher at 11.63. Friday’s ratio at 12.26 was a 27day high. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed at its lowest level since December. Momentum is down and negative. Support at 117.14, maj poc.
Gold GLD: closed below 115.12, the 18mn poc in a weak price location.
Oil USO: closed at its highest level since December and for three weeks has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: in February broke below the major 1/2R at 1.1241. There was a swift decline but chart has now rallied back to that probe that level
