Pre-open comment Thursday 14th May
Please read previous highlighted comments. ES has become ever more focused at 2095.50 and price action this week (see chart) means that the ten month control price has now migrated to that level. Migration of an important poc often preceeds a directional move so the three month consolidation may well be about to end. My hunch is higher but we don’t know. Either way, Aggressive Buying marked above 2095.50 or Aggressive Selling marked below that level will now most likely follow on.
Support = 2095.50 (10mn poc)
Breadth numbers are not yet Supportive. Bulls would want to see these improve, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 45% (from 47%), Nasdaq 44% (unch), R2000 37% (from 38%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 10.48. On Tuesday Bull fund assets that I follow hit a six month low, and again yesterday. Also note that the three month low for the ratio is at 9.91. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed at its lowest level since November. Momentum is down and negative. Support at 117.14, maj poc.
Dollar Index: below 94.67, the 12mn poc, and currently printing its lowest level since 22nd Jan.
Gold GLD: closed sharply higher, above 115.12, the 18mn poc. Next Resistance is 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low.
Oil USO: last week printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: printing its highest level since February and above the major 1/2R (1.1241)
