Pre-open comment Wednesday 17th June
Note: I am now following the September contract. Tuesday generated a higher, wider Value Area and Aggressive Buying was marked. In the longer timeframe this is Reactive Buying because it was marked below the 2095.50 poc, our First Level Resistance. Pre-open that level has been reached and probed but currently (one-hour pre-open) ES is printing just below 2095.50. I want to see ES back above this level before considering the long side. Both breadth and price momentum also need to improve.
Dayframe: Intraday today 2095.50 could be Support or Resistance.
Key Charts/Levels this week: SPY stronger price location because it closed above 209.92 (12mn) – there is Resistance at 210.75, the 1/2R off May high. IWM strong, closed above 124.50 (7mn).
First Level S/R = 2095.50
Second Level Resistance = 2107.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 39% (from 36%), Nasdaq 55% (from 53%), R2000 52% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 10.07. It fell to 9.14 last week which is close to the 7mn low at 9.0. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed above 117.14, the maj poc. Price below this level would be very weak price location.
Dollar Index: currently prints just above 94.67, the 12mn Support. Price below this level would be weak price location.
Gold GLD: in May a probe into the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low, was rejected and last recently printed its lowest level since March.
Oil USO: in May printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: currently printing just below 1.1340, the 12mn Time Resistance. Price above this level would be stronger price location.
