S&P 500 emini analysis: On Monday I marked Aggressive Buying. These green-at-top highs are usually (80%) tested within a day (or two) and are a bullish indication but, as I have mentioned many times, the stat is not as reliable on a gap day, like Monday. ES will likely open lower today following the move by the PBOC but Bulls can hope that the 1/2R Support at 2080.25 will hold, see yesterday’s highlighted comments.
Second Level Resistance = 2107.00 (poc)
First Level Resistance = 2095.00 (poc)
Potential S/R today = 2080.25 (1/2R)
Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down for all four Stock Index ETFS. This needs to improve. Breadth numbers also need to improve, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 35%), Nasdaq 36% (from 33%), R2000 37% (from 33%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 10.1. The ratio fell as low as 8.67 on 07/14 which was an eight month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: On Friday chart closed at its highest level since April. Momentum (PriceOsc) is still positive and up. There is Resistance at 126.69, the 1/2R off this year’s high. Futures indicate a higher Open for TLT today.
Dollar Index: as long as chart holds above 96.76, the 1/2R off March high, it is in a strong price location.
Gold GLD: Long term charts for Gold indicate major Support at the July price low. “If” this is broken Gold (and GLD) would be in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: printed a new low on Monday but closed strong. Futues indicate a lower open foir USO today.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.0961, the 1/2R off March low in a stronger price location. Price relative to this level would indicate ST strength/weakness.
