S&P 500 emini analysis: The Value Area low of the eight month price range from November is at 2047.50 (dashed line on chart). Wednesday’s test of this level brought an immediate Response from the Buyers auctioning ES swiftly back towards the controlling price at 2095 (ES has printed as high as 2093.00 as of one hour pre-open). This is encouraging and suggests the distribution that began in October 2014 is still valid.
Bullish: would be time printed back above 2095.
Bearish: would be more time printed below 2095, especially if that causes the controlling price to migrate lower. Time around 2070/75 would be of particular concern.
Second Level Resistance = 2095.00 (poc)
Support/Resistance today = 2080.25 (1/2R)
Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative for all four Stock Index ETFS. Also Breadth numbers deteriorated and these also need to improve, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% (from 39%), Nasdaq 30% (from 32%), R2000 31% (from 35%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 9.67. The ratio fell as low as 8.67 on 07/14 which was an eight month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: On Tuesday printed its highest level since April. Momentum (PriceOsc) is still positive but has turned lower. There is Resistance at 126.69, the 1/2R off this year’s high.
Dollar Index: currently printing just below 96.76, the 1/2R off March high, which is weaker ST price location.
Gold GLD: Long term charts for Gold indicate major Support at the July price low. “If” this is broken Gold (and GLD) would be in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: has printed a new low this week.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.0961, the 1/2R off March low in a stronger ST price location. There is Resistance at 1.1241, major 1/2R.
