S&P 500 emini analysis: Thursday generated a higher, narrower Value Area, up from Wednesday’s rejected test of 2047.50, the eight month Value Area low (dashed line). However, the VA was below the 2095.00 poc and I need to see time printed above that level before anticipating any further strength. ES is still in a weak price location and with accompanying weak technicals, see below, I remain cautious. Pre-open today ES is mid 2070’s and Bulls do not want to see too much time spent here, again see yesterday’s comments.
Second Level Resistance = 2095.00 (poc)
Support/Resistance today = 2080.25 (1/2R)
Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative for all four Stock Index ETFS. This needs to improve, as does breadth, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 37%), Nasdaq 31% (from 30%), R2000 32% (from 31%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.54. The ratio fell as low as 8.67 on 07/14 which was an eight month low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: On Tuesday printed its highest level since April. Momentum (PriceOsc) is still positive but has turned lower. There is Resistance at 126.69, the 1/2R off this year’s high.
Dollar Index: currently printing just below 96.76, the 1/2R off March high, which is weaker ST price location.
Gold GLD: Long term charts for Gold indicate major Support at the July price low. “If” this is broken Gold (and GLD) would be in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: printed a new low on Thursday.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.0961, the 1/2R off March low in a stronger ST price location. There is Resistance at 1.1241, major 1/2R.
