Technical analysis – Market pre-open 16th September
See yesterday’s, highlighted, comments. I wrote that the newly migrated minor poc at 1954.00 could provide Support or Resistance on Tuesday. It turned out to be clear Support off the open and this proven must continue to hold. Price below this level would be weak location. I marked Aggressive Buying and ES rallied to the Resistance at 1978.50, the 1/2R off this year’s high, and pre-open today ES prints just below that level. We have a major risk event tomorrow which will likley bring volatility but we have clear levels which will be a guide to market strength/weakness when the dust has settled. Price printing time above 1978.50 would suggest higher.
Major Resistance = 1978.50 (1/2R off this year’s high)
First Level Support = 1954.00 (33dy poc|)
Major Support = 1870.00 (formerly the maj poc)
ETFs: The following important Resistance levels are in play today = SPY 198.10; IWM 116.00; DIA 166.95. Price above these levels would be much stronger location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 22% (from 17%), Nasdaq 33% (from 28%), R2000 30% (from 25%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.96. Friday’s ratio at 3.68 was the lowest level since October 2013. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: found Resistance on 08/24 at 126.69 (1/2R off this year’s high) and sold off. Momentum (PriceOsc) is negative and down. Closed at a 38day low on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: currently printing very close to 94.67, the 12mn poc. Price below this level would be weak price location. There is Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) but price above that level would be stronger location.
Gold GLD: chart rallied into mid August but has retraced from there. Price is now printing below 107.78, the 1/2R off July low, which is weak price location. Momentum has turned negative.
Oil USO: printed a new low on 08/24 and then rallied very strongly from there to its highest level since late July. Momentum is positive and up.
EURUSD: currently printing very close to 1.1340 (12mn poc) which is now Resistance. The minor 1/2R off March low at 1.1083 provided Support recently but price below that level would suggest further weakness.
