Technical analysis – Market pre-open 15th October 2015
Please read previous highlighted comments. Wednesday’s sessioin generated the sixth Value Area above 1971.00, the 1/2R off this year’s high and ES must hold this Support to remain in a ST strong price location. Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Selling on Wednesday for the second day. If ES prints above Wednesday’s high, 2001.75, this would negate any negative ST implications of yesterday’s red-at-bottom low. Pre-open ES has printed as high 2000.00. The analysis looks mixed with large cap ETFs (SPY, DIA)in strong price locations and small caps (IWM) so far unable to overcome Resistance, see below.
First Level Support = ES 1971.00 (1/2R off this year’s high)
Second Level Support = ES 1923.00 (50dy poc)
Key Support this week: SPY 198.10 = 1/2R off May high; QQQ 105.10 = maj poc; DIA 166.95 = 1/2R off May high.
and Key Resistance: IWM 116.00 = maj poc; FTSE100 6445.50 = 1/2R off April high.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% (from 60%), Nasdaq 44% (from 49%), R2000 49% (from 55%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.22 but early last week the ratio recorded 3.09 which was a two year low.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: has to hold above the 121.40 Support (12mn poc) to remain in a strong price location and has done that so far this week. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: in September rallied back to the Resistance at 96.50 (1/2R off this year’s high) without overcoming it. Fell last week and today is printing below 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: on Wednesday broke above the August high to its highest level since June.
Oil USO: recently found Support at the 1/2R off August low rallied from there to test the August high on Monday. This was rejected and USO fell sharply from there. The 1/2R Support off the August low is now at 14.28. Futures indicate a lower open.
EURUSD: is today printing above 1.1340 (12mn poc) and must hold this level to maintain a strong price location.
