Technical analysis – Market pre-open 25th November 2015
Overnight on Tuesday ES printed close to the 2063 Support and rallied back during Tuesday’s session. The numbers +9 and +106191 indicate Buyers were active intraday but notice the overlapping/lower Value Area which indicates their activity was not “Effective”. Neither Buyers or Sellers have been Effective in the dayframe for four days. This lack of directional conviction could be due to the holiday period ahead or simply Buyers Resting as mentioned yesterday. Whatever the reason, at current levels I would want to see Buying above the 2094 Resistance before looking to initiate new longs.
The daily Breadth indication on the S&P500 Pulse chart has improved (green) and Momentum for SPY, although still negative, ticked up again.
First Level Resistance = 2094.00 (maj poc)
First Level Support = 2063.00 (5mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1971.00 = 1/2R off this year’s high
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 60%), Nasdaq 58% (from 56%), R2000 62% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 6.67. On 11/11 the ratio reached 8.41 which was a 57day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT/IEF : Major Time Support is at TLT 117.14 and Resistance at 121.40. IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF, recently found Support at 105.00 it’s maj poc Support, and has rallied. Good chart to monitor. Futures indicate a higher open today.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since March.
Gold GLD: last week printed its lowest level since 2009 and has bounced very little. Very weak price location.
Oil USO: last week printed its lowest level since August. Rallied on Tuesday but Futures indicate a lower open today.
EURUSD: has today printed its lowest level since April.
