Technical analysis – Market pre-open 24th December 2015
Wednesday generated a higher, narrower Value Area on low Volume. Pre-open today ES is printing above 2043 (1/2R). Breadth numbers remain below 50, see below, but momentum (PriceOsc) although still negative for all four major stock index ETFs, has turned up.
Resistance 2087.00 (5mn poc) to 2094.00 (maj poc)
First Level Support = 2043.00 (1/2R off November’s high, Mar contract)
Second Level Support = 1965.25 (1/R off this year’s high)
Key Chart IWM: Resistance at 115.35 (maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 40% (from 30%), Nasdaq 45% (from 40%), R2000 41% (from 35%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 8.22. Bull fund assets that I follow are up more than 20% this week. This is a contrarian indicator. On 12/01 the ratio reached 9.00 which was a 70day high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: on Monday found Resistance at 106.60 (18mn poc) and is lower from there. There is Support at 105.00, the major poc. Next directional move will likely be signalled by a solid break from this range.
Dollar Index: A probe earlier in the month above the March high was rejected. The minor 1/2R off that high is at 98.85. Dollar Bulls would want to see the index printing above that level.
Gold GLD: Printed a new five year low last week. Still in a very weak price location.
Oil: printed a new six year low on Monday but has rallied strongly from there.
EURUSD: The rally from the November low approached, but did not test, the First Level Resistance at 1.1080, 1/2R off March low.
